Constituencies where BJP + KJP's vote share is greater than winning party
There are 28 seats where sum of votes by BJP and KJP would have been greater than winning party .
Politics is not Just about arithmetic :-
It would be naive if we assume all those who voted for BJP and KJP would have voted for BJP had their been no "split" in the party . If we go by Suvarna news survey atleast 6 percent of BJP voters said that they "are" voting for BJP because Yeddy was removed from CMship. Also not all KJP voters would have voted for BJP had there been no split. Some vote for candidates , some vote for caste .Out of these 28 seats victory there are 10 seats where difference between BJP + KJP v/s winning candidates was less than 5% , these seats are unlikely to be with BJP even if BJP and KJP had fought together.
There are also 5 seats where BJP + KJP V/s winning candidate is less than 10% these can be considered as 50-50 seats .
Factoring these parameters:--
Seats total no of seats BJP could have definitely won is 13
Seats where BJP victory is 50-50 chances is 5
Seats where BJP's victory is unlikely is 10
